It was a week of divergence. Oil surged past $100, AI spending fears rattled Big Tech, crypto held surprisingly firm, and defense tech became the hottest trade in venture.
Here’s what moved markets this week:
1. Stocks: The AI Capex Backlash
Wall Street closed lower for a second straight week as investors punished the biggest spenders.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.1% on the week, S&P 500 down 0.6% and Dow down 0.4% on Friday, with chip stocks leading the decline. On Friday alone, the S&P 500 gained 0.07% to 7,413.30 while Nasdaq lost 0.63% to 24,980.34 and the Dow rose 0.46% to 51,947.52 as oil pulled back.
What triggered it?
Earnings: Tesla shares sank nearly 15% after profit missed on rising R&D costs, and Alphabet fell 7% despite 24% revenue growth — the market balked at its plan to lift capex to $205 billion and negative free cash flow from data center buildouts.
The narrative shift: "People are thinking, how do we make sense of all this spending, and how much more patient do we have to be before we actually see it translate to actual profits?" — Peter Andersen, Andersen Capital Management. "The fear of missing out is becoming more like a fear of massive overbuilding."
Macro pressure: Brent crude surged to $102 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before settling Friday down 3.9% to $96.78 on reports of new U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed by Pakistan and China. The spike pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.68%, down slightly Friday after hitting 4.72% Thursday — its highest since January 2025. Traders now price a 36% chance of a Fed hike next week, up from 13% a week ago.
Globally, India’s Sensex and Nifty opened down nearly 1% on Friday tracking the same oil shock, while Europe’s STOXX 600 managed a 0.8% gain Friday after a more than 1% drop in the prior session.
2. Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $65K Despite Oil Shock
Crypto was the surprise outperformer.
Bitcoin held near $65,000 as the Iran conflict sent oil to a two-month high, rising toward $65,760 intraday despite Brent trading at $97.66. By Friday, BTC was around $65,300, down 1.84% in 24 hours, with ETH near $1,890.
What saved it: ETF flows. Bitcoin ETFs posted seven consecutive days of net inflows, pushing prices back toward $67,000 after June’s multi-billion outflows. Spot ETFs added $68.99 million on Thursday alone, and one tracker noted $930 million total during a six-day streak earlier in the week.
The setup remains fragile: BTC is boxed between $64,000 and $66,800 after bouncing 13% from its July 1 low of $57,750, with every attempt at $67,000 sold. Altcoins were mixed — HYPE and FET gained over 2% while AVAX, HBAR and SUI fell. Total crypto market cap sat near $2.24 trillion earlier this week.
Key catalysts next week: The Fed’s July 28-29 meeting and the Senate deadline for the CLARITY Act.
3. Startup Funding: Defense Tech and AI Infrastructure Dominate
Venture is no longer about consumer apps — it’s about missiles, chips, and gigawatts.
Anduril in talks at $100 billion: Defense tech firm Anduril is in discussions with investors for a new round that could value it at roughly $100 billion, rivaling Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. Just two months ago it doubled to $61 billion in a $5 billion round led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. The talks come amid booming military sales and the U.S. conflict with Iran.
The AI circular deal: AMD will sell Anthropic tens of billions of dollars worth of AI servers and invest up to $5 billion in the Claude maker. The deal includes a 20-year lease at TeraWulf’s Justified Data campus expected to generate ∼$19 billion of contracted revenue. Anthropic will deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 chips starting H1 2027.
The context: Defense tech startups have already raised $14.6B YTD in 2026 — eclipsing 2025’s full-year record. Global VC is up 139% YoY through April, with AI accounting for 66% of all venture capital — the most concentrated single-technology allocation in venture history.
Bottom line: Markets are repricing two things at once — the cost of AI and the cost of oil. Stocks are wavering until Big Tech proves capex turns into cash, crypto is leaning on institutional ETF demand to stay afloat, and private capital is betting that the next trillion-dollar companies build the physical layer — drones, chips, and data centers — not just software.